Monday, October 28, 2024

Goals Are Not Plans: The Sad Case of Donald Trump

Some voters want their candidates to have actual plans. Others don’t seem to care.

During his infamous October 27, 2024 Madison Square Garden rally, presidential candidate Donald Trump promised to excel at foreign affairs. However, he stated no plans, only goals:

“I will end the war in Ukraine, which would’ve never happened if I were president. I will stop the chaos in the Middle East and I will prevent World War III from happening.”

OK, great. We all want that.

But those are only goals. Where are the policies? How would Trump have prevented the Ukraine-Russia war? I’d love to know. How will he get peace? Will he force Russia to withdraw? Negotiate a settlement? If so, how? Will he just cut Ukraine off and let Russia massacre the survivors? If so, why?

How will he be the first leader in thousands of years to end the Middle East conflicts?

How will he stop the wars and end the chaos? What policies, what plans, could achieve those goals? Who knows? Trump has never said, not in this speech, not anywhere.

Where are the details? Yes, the details matter.

Audiences, when you hear a campaign promise, always ask, “how?” Never, ever put blind faith in any candidate. Never assume they have actual plans. Until proven otherwise, assume that they are spouting hot air. Always ask, at least to yourself, “how will you do that?”

Earlier Post: Critical Thinking on the Cheap 

We all want peace. Goals, however, are not plans. Leadership lies in the details. Public speeches always come down to the audience! Audiences, it is your fault, and yours alone, if you fail to insist on details. Critical thinking can be hard, but sometimes it is as simple as asking: how? 

Vote wisely, America.

by William D. Harpine  

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P.S. Thanks to rev.com, a transcript service, for preparing a text of Trump’s speech.

Copyright © 2024 by William D. Harpine

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Kamala Harris Said Trump Admired Hitler. Do Voters Care?

Kamala Harris
Wise speakers adapt to their audience: their listeners’ values, goals, fears, and ambitions. Effective public speaking begins with the audience. Always. Public speaking teachers have taught that for, literally, millennia. Why don’t politicians figure it out? Why doesn’t Kamala Harris figure it out?

Unfortunately, we see Kamala Harris repeating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign mistakes. As we should recall, Clinton spent much of her campaign pointing out Trump’s association with and appeal to evil people. For example, she ran advertisements linking Trump’s agenda to the Ku Klux Klan’s agenda. That was pointless. Donald Trump’s supporters had long since made peace with the man’s deep moral flaws. After all, they had heard the Billy Bush tape, where Trump boasted about committing sexual assault: “I moved on her like a bi--h.” They knew that Trump’s crowd had chanted, “Hail, Trump” while flashing Nazi salutes. 

Clinton’s advertising campaign proved that Trump was evil. His supporters already knew that. Did they care?

Along the same lines as Hillary Clinton, at an October 24, 2024 campaign event in Clarkston, Georgia, Kamala Harris made a valid point that embodied a rhetorical mistake. She complained about Trump’s alleged admiration for Adolf Hitler. She said:

“In fact, just this week, America heard from John Kelly, a retired four-star Marine general, who was Trump’s White House chief of staff, who said that, as president, Trump praised Hitler — take a moment to think about what that means — that Trump said, quote, ‘Hitler did some good things’ —

“AUDIENCE: Booo —

“THE VICE PRESIDENT: — and that Trump wished he had generals like Hitler’s, who would be loyal to Trump and not to America’s Constitution.”

Although I do not have a particularly high opinion of John Kelly, I do trust him to tell the truth on matters like this. But what political difference do his claims make? Not much. That is because conservative voters have quit agonizing about Trump’s moral flaws.


John Kelly's Speech about Frederica Wilson: How to Lose Credibility, and Fast


The social sciences help us understand why. Linguist George Lakoff explains that liberal voters gravitate toward candidates who express a “nurturing mother” metaphor, while conservative voters are looking for a “strong father.” Candidates like Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, or (although male) Joe Biden offered their supporters a nurturing mother metaphor: they offered a nation of justice, support, and goodness. Those qualities do not dominate conservative thinking.

Instead, Donald Trump offers power. He does not talk about bringing justice to immigrants: he talks about expelling them. He does not talk about fixing the immigration system; he talks about closing the border. He does not talk about reforming government; he talks about ripping it up. He calls the United States government “the Deep State.” That does not mean that all conservative voters prefer evil and disorder. That would not be true. What is true is that conservative voters want their leaders to protect them from real and imaginary dangers. That is why voters in North Dakota, more than a thousand miles from the Mexican border, treat immigration as issue number one.

So, Kamala Harris made Trump’s seeming admiration for Hitler into a central campaign point. Core Democratic voters, obviously, are offended. Conservatives, in contrast, ask, “so what?”

Do you want proof? According to recent polls, General Kelly’s revelations seem to have made little difference in this closely contested election. Some of Trump’s supporters, no doubt, think that a new Hitler would be great. The bulk of Trump’s supporters have found ways to rationalize Trump’s anti-American views, and there we are.

Trump’s voters simply rationalize his wickedness. That is why Kamala Harris cannot budge them by reminding them that Trump spreads evil ideas. They already know that. They have known that for years. “I’m not voting for a preacher,” they say, over and over, like a mantra. They complain that Kelly is a traitor, or that Democrats are big meanies. They can then swallow hard and accept that Trump admires Hitler.

What Trump’s supporters could never accept, however, would be that Trump is weak. (Do you remember when his crowd booed as Trump recommended vaccination?) If Harris wants to budge shaky Trump supporters, she needs to talk about his whining and equivocating. She needs to point out Trump’s weaknesses: his terrible presidential record on the economy, his griping about the election, his fear of electric boat batteries, and so forth. Those things show Trump to be weak. Trump’s supporters might care about those things.


Does Donald Trump Lead His Supporters, or Do His Supporters Lead Him? Oops, He Asked Them to Take a Vaccine.


People who value social justice already support Harris. People who fear Hitler’s reincarnation already support Harris. If she wants to pick up undecided voters, or to sway any of Trump’s less committed, supporters, Harris needs to focus on what they care about. What they care about is strength. And weak leaders terrify them. It is pointless for her to tell undecided voters that Trump is evil. She needs to show them that Trump is weak.

If a speaker wants to persuade people, it’s time to identify what the audience cares about. Nothing else matters.



Adolf Hitler’s “Christian Nationalist” Speech

by William D. Harpine
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PS: Is Trump another Hitler? Of course not. Hitler wrote his own book.


Copyright © 2024 by William D. Harpine

Image: Official White House photo, public domain

Monday, October 21, 2024

Kamala Got Heckled and Snapped Back. Does That Make Her the Antichrist?

Kamala Harris
Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for the presidency of the United States, faced hecklers at a political rally in Wisconsin on October 16, 2024. Harris said that President Donald Trump had nominated three conservative justices to the Supreme Court for the purpose of overturning Roe v Wade. She remarked that they then voted to do precisely that, returning abortion legislation to the states. A lusty, pro-choice boo emerged from the crowd.

Still, no controversy goes unpunished. A small group of hecklers quickly shouted, rather indistinctly on the unedited video, “liar, liar,” “Christ is King,” and “Jesus is Lord.” (Indeed, on the raw video, “liar, liar” was the only heckle that I heard clearly. I never actually made out “Christ is King,” so I’m just taking pundits’ word that this was also one of the heckles.)

Anyway, Harris quipped back:
“Oh, you guys are at the wrong rally. I think you meant to go to the smaller one down the street.”
By “smaller one,” she was referring to Donald Trump’s rally, digging at her opponent’s obsession with crowd sizes.

The partisan press could not ignore this juicy incident. Some mainstream media outlets played the video, sometimes sneakily cutting or deemphasizing “Jesus is Lord.” In contrast, conservatives showed video clips that appeared to my ears to (1) cut the “liar, liar” heckle and (2) amplify “Jesus is Lord.” Since “liar, liar” was the first of several heckles, it was a trivial matter for conservatives to clip it out while leaving “Jesus is Lord” intact. 

They then highlighted the clipped video with headlines and captions to the effect of: 
“Christian students in Wisconsin speak out after Kamala Harris told them they were at the ‘wrong rally.’”
Interviewed later, one of the hecklers later commented that, “Jesus was mocked.” That was quite a heady accusation. 

Even more emphatic, literally linking Harris with the biblical figure of Anti-Christ, the EconoTimes headlined:
“Is Kamala Harris Anti-Christ? VP CLAPS BACK at Rally Heckler Who Shouted 'Jesus is Lord' — 'I Think You’re at the WRONG Rally!'”
The EconoTimes’ article prominently quoted “Jesus is Lord,” while ingeniously omitting the “liar, liar” heckle that immediately preceded it. 

Yet more pointedly, conservative pundit Lou Dobbs’ staff also quoted “Jesus is Lord” without mentioning “liar, liar.” Their accompanying headline, which accused Harris of being "evil," poked at her even more forcefully:
“EVIL: Kamala Harris and Her Supporters Mock Christian Attendee Shouting ‘Jesus is Lord’ During Abortion Speech — Kamala Coldly Responds, ‘You’re at the Wrong Rally’”
This is how conspiracy theories start.

First, as a simple fact, the conservative complaints arise from real evidence. Out of context, one heckler among others did, indeed, shout “Jesus is Lord.” Harris did, indeed, tell the hecklers that they were at the wrong rally. Thus, the attacks on Harris did have some fuel.

Second, however, “Jesus is Lord” quickly followed the secular heckle, “liar, liar.” Thus, “Jesus is Lord” was only one of several heckles. To be frank, judging only from the video (which seems to be all the conservative pundits judge from), I’m not convinced that I heard and understood all of the heckles. The heckles barely stood out from the background noise. How many of the rapid-fire heckles did Harris discern on the spot? Did she even hear, “Jesus is Lord?” I have no idea.

Third, the hecklers had made their political views entirely clear, and I do not think that Harris was unjustified to remark that the Trump rally would make them feel more welcome.

Fourth, the hecklers did their damage. Now, yes, the hecklers were, indeed, obnoxious, and yes, the conservative pundits did, in fact, jump to a poorly supported conclusion. The fact remains that the hecklers set Harris up, and the setup worked. “Liar, liar” was enough to trigger Harris’ response, with “Jesus is Lord” thrown in a moment later, more quietly to my ears. If “Jesus is Lord” was less audible, did Harris simply overlook it? Conservative pundits could take the entire exchange out of context and run with it. The hecklers played a dirty trick, and it worked. Frankly, if I were speaking, the trick would probably fool me, too.

As a personal aside, the Christian Right continues to befuddle me. The Holy Bible does not advise me to starve the poor, ignore the sick, and expel the immigrants. Indeed, on my plain reading, the Bible commands the opposite. Nor does the Bible say a thing about abortion. Other moral codes of ancient times did forbid or restrict abortion (e.g., the Hippocratic oath), and therefore I find the Bible’s silence on the issue to be salient. It is for those reasons that I cannot reconcile my own Christian beliefs with the Republican Party’s teachings.

Earlier Post: Mike Pence Heckled by the Christian Right Because He Didn't Bow to Trump

All the same, millions of single-issue voters choose their political candidates entirely because of their abortion policies. Proudly fervent, they ignore all other moral or political issues. They have grown so keen that abortion alone directs their judgment that a particular candidate is, or is not, a Christian. Thus, in context, “Jesus is Lord” became a partisan political statement. With that political context established, Harris’ counter-heckle seemed on point. Nevertheless, the hecklers accomplished their goal. Still, I would think that, if the entire exchange showed Harris to be anti-Christian, why did conservatives need to crop and enhance it?

Interestingly, the next Sunday, Kamala Harris attended church, and Donald Trump did not. Does that matter to the Christian Right? Evidently not.

I’ve written several times about the fine art of heckling. Sometimes heckling pays off well for the hecklers. Other times, speakers counter-heckle with great effect. More often, heckling just embarrasses everyone. Let’s call this incident a tossup.
___________

Earlier Posts:

The Lost Art of Heckling: How to Heckle and Not Sound Like an Idiot



by William D. Harpine  
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Research Note: Much persuasion research arises from a psychological concept called Attribution Theory. Attribution Theory examines the psychological processes listeners use to perceive and interpret other people’s behavior. For example, suppose that Pat bumps into someone. Do we attribute that to Pat’s bad manners? Or do we attribute it to Pat’s clumsiness? Or to a gust of wind that shoved Pat around? The Fundamental Attribution Error occurs when we falsely believe that someone’s behavior is intentional and motivated, when it is, in fact, not.

Psychologist Sam McLeod explains the Fundamental Attribution Error:
“People have a cognitive bias to assume that a person’s actions depend on what ‘kind’ of person that person is rather than on the social and environmental forces that influence the person.”
In this case, conservative pundits attributed Harris’ quip to her supposedly anti-Christian attitudes. Does the evidence support that attribution? Or does the attribution result from their pre-existing bias against Harris? When conservatives edited the video to cut one heckle and highlight another, were they emphasizing their point, or did they commit mere chicanery? Feel free to post your response in a comment below, or on my X.com feed



Image: Official White House photo, public domain

Copyright © 2024 by William D. Harpine