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| Donald Trump |
In his July 16, 2026 speech about election
security, United States President Donald Trump made several startling claims about the nation’s elections. Furthermore, he simultaneously released documents in an attempt to prove them.
Among his claims, he asserted that noncitizens are illegally voting:
“According to the DHS review, state voter rolls and public
records, they identified approximately 278,000 non-citizens who are registered
to vote in federal elections.”
As I pointed out in yesterday’s post, Trump’s speech created
the illusion that he was proving things that he did not, in fact, prove.
Instead of stating the proof during his actual speech,
Trump referred listeners to the White House website. Note to readers: when a
speaker promises to prove something, but instead refers the audience
to an outside source for proof, you need to get suspicious right away. That tactic raises a giant red flag.
Trump's Election Fraud Speech and the Illusion of Proof, Part One
Anyway, I accordingly browsed the White House website. I found a note,
which did not prove election fraud as promised. Instead, it said that
the White House was “addressing key areas of election integrity.”
Basic government-speak. Typical Deep State hedging. I then looked
at the link that said, “Noncitizens on State Voter Rolls.”
Curiously, only one page in that link (and by page, I mean, literally, one
printed page) dealt with noncitizens on state voter rolls (the only other page
on that link was on a different topic, pointing out that the Chinese
government has been accessing American voter rolls, which is
apparently legal, albeit extremely disturbing). Here it is.
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| White House Document; Click to Enlarge |
Thus, now that we have browsed through several confusing
links, we finally find Trump’s supposed evidence that
“OVER 250,000
NON-CITIZENS ARE ILLEGALLY REGISTERED TO VOTE IN JUST THE FOUR STATES FOR
WHICH PUBLIC DATA FILES HAVE BEEN REVIEWED.” [italics added]
This page then petulantly lists 10 states (far
short of 50 but more than 4, which makes me curious about the White House’s editing team) that have been “proactive” to scan their voter rolls for alien
voters. Worse, even if we count all 10 states from the White House chart, the number of non-citizens registered to vote only adds up to 10,716. If that turns out to be true, it is 10,716 too many, but it is nowhere near 250,000, as the headline claims. Now, I am no math genius, but evidently I can out-count the White House’s wizards.
The document conspiratorially concludes by claiming:
“There is an undeniable pattern emerging as DHS
begins to unravel the horrific damage done by the open border policies of the
Biden administration. States that have adopted alien-first policies
instead of American-first policies have a disproportionate number of
non-citizens on their voter rolls.”
Okay, as the old hamburger advertisement asked, “where’s the
beef?”
First, where is the valid evidence proving that
these thousands of noncitizens are (1) registered to vote as noncitizens and
(2) actually voting? A chart, by itself, proves nothing.
Since I have been trained in social science research methods,
I immediately want to know the methodology by which the
chart was created. Unfortunately, that methodology is not given. This
matters, for legal actions have claimed that the supposed lists of
noncitizen voters include legal immigrants who obtained a driver’s license
while non-citizens, but subsequently became naturalized and are
therefore now legally allowed to vote. In one such lawsuit, the State of Texas
backed down on its claim! Analyzing Texas’ actions, David Becker of the Center for
Election Innovation & Research commented that, “Their claims
would likely be dismissed [in court] until they could come up with something
that actually documents how they got to those numbers.”
Since the one-page document – the only evidence that Trump
presented on this point – fails to address this well-publicized criticism, what, if
anything, has been established?
Second, if there are, indeed, thousands of noncitizens illegally
registered to vote, why have these supposedly patriotic, data-driven
states not prosecuted them – by the thousands? The evidence does not support
Trump’s claim. That is not just a logical gap; it is a logical
cavern.
Trump made a simple, but vital, claim about election
security. He presented no evidence in his speech,
instead referring listeners to his website. The website provides only pathetic documentation. This reduces his claim to mere political
posturing. It was easy for him to make false claims, but making such
a claim in a speech does not prove it to be true. The speaker either offers proof or does not offer proof. In this case, Trump did not present the promised proof.
Making a wild accusation proves nothing!
Smoke, mirrors, and misdirection! A magician’s classic
tricks. Trump’s speech directed me to a website. I plowed through the
website, link after confusing link, only to find that any proof is doubtful. It
is easy to make accusations. It is much harder to discover and
present proof. It was easy for Trump to make these accusations. I, however,
needed to do a lot of work to discover that he had not proven anything.
Throwing out a puff of smoke in front of a mirror? That’s easy.
Digging into the facts? That requires effort. That, in fact, underlies Trump’s real trick.
Trump's Speech of January 6, 2021: A "Firehose of Falsehood"
Social science explains why Trump’s trick works. RAND Corporation researchers introduced the concept of
the “Firehose of Falsehood.” The idea is that dishonest speakers, like Donald
Trump, can spew out vast numbers of false charges. A firehose of false charges. One false charge after another.
Their gullible audience doesn’t expect them to prove anything.
However, to disprove even one charge is a lot of work. Look at how much effort I needed to create this blog post just to disprove one questionable claim. It’s easy for a speaker to spew out an unsupported accusation, but hard for a careful listener to prove that it’s false. Critical listeners
eventually get overwhelmed. Trump’s speech made many claims. He proved
none of them. I suspect that most of them are false. Do I, however, want to spend the
next week or two parsing the speech, point by point, to prove that every single
claim was false? No, of course not. I have other things to do with my life.
One flaw in Trump’s documentation is absolutely
fascinating: although the United States government is stuffed with
skilled web designers, Trump’s team made his election
documents hard to access and even harder to link. Why?
Well, maybe Trump just hired the worst web designers in the
government. I wouldn’t doubt that. Or, maybe, he and his team
just schemed to make the documents hard to access. I lean toward
the former, because of the old slogan that we should never accuse somebody
of dishonesty when incompetence explains things perfectly well. Still, who knows?
I hope, in a future post, to explain the ancient concept of
Burden of Proof. Ultimately, Trump’s genius as a rhetorician, and
his failure as a leader, is that he asserts things that he cannot prove. His loyal supporters’ biggest
weakness may be their gullible eagerness to accept Trump’s dubious, unproven claims.
Next time around, when Trump makes outrageous claims, our simple response needs
to be: “you made the claim, now you need to prove it!”
by William D. Harpine
Copyright ©2026 by William D. Harpine
Image of Donald Trump: official portrait, public domain
Image of Homeland Security Document, White House website, public domain