Words Matter: Trump's Announcement Speech Promised Not to Cut Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security

Words make a difference.

On June 16, 2015, Donald Trump announced his candidacy to be president of the United States in a dramatic speech at Trump Tower. Trump focused attention on illegal immigration. He promised to be tough on ISIS. He talked about his business experience.

March 2017 Health Care Meeting, White House photo

The secret to Mr. Trump’s successful presidential campaign may, however, have been his position about entitlements. In particular, alone among the Republican primary candidates in 2016, Mr. Trump talked about how important it would be to preserve Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. In his announcement speech, he said:

“Save Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security without cuts. Have to do it. . . . Get rid of the fraud. Get rid of the waste and abuse, but save it. People have been paying it for years. And now many of these candidates want to cut it. You save it by making the United States, by making us rich again, by taking back all the money that's being lost."

Mr. Trump’s primary election campaign opponent Ben Carson wanted to eliminate Medicare and replace it with a privatization plan. Marco Rubio proposed protecting people who were already retired, but he wanted to replace Medicare with something that he called a “premium support system.” Ted Cruz proposed raising Medicare’s eligibility age. Rubio, Cruz, and John Kasich all thought that Social Security benefits needed to be cut. Other Republican primary election campaign candidates were very cagey about entitlement reform.

The Republican Party's core voters tend to be elderly. You might think that Republican candidates would therefore support Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Generally they do not. The 2012 Republican platform proposed switching Medicare and Medicaid to a “defined contribution model.” In 2016, Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate who proposed retaining Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Under his influence, the 2016 platform took a more moderate stance about entitlements. It’s very likely that Trump's promise made the difference in the primary election campaign.

Well, whatever. Entitlement reform is a complex question, and I am not an economist. All the same, however, Mr. Trump is now trapped in his own words from his own speech. The bills that the House and Senate have been considering recently call for massive cuts in future Medicaid benefits, and ultimately throwing millions of people out of health insurance. Mr. Trump has endorsed both plans, even though he is quoted as calling the House plan “mean.”

Words matter. Trump’s campaign was based on preserving Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. America’s aging population depends heavily on all three programs.

In a debate, it is considered acceptable to change one’s opinion provided that one explains why, or at least admits that one is now speaking for a different idea. Mr. Trump did neither. Controversy is inevitable--not only about health care reform itself, but also about Mr. Trump's reliability.