Did Trump's Speech at the Helsinki Summit Lose His Supporters? Probably Not

Trump and Putin at 2018 Helsinki Summit

In a brief, rambling, extemporaneous speech during the press conference at the recent Helsinki Summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump talked about Russian interference in the 2016 election campaign. Mr. Trump failed to endorse the findings of American intelligence agencies, which concluded that Russia interfered in the election to help Mr. Trump, mostly by spreading rumors and false accusations against Hillary Clinton. Mr. Trump bluntly criticized American officials by name and blamed both sides for the problems. A political storm broke out, with charges of "treason" seeming more credible. But, as of today, Mr. Trump's voters still support him. Why?

Defying the overwhelming evidence, only 1/3 of Republican voters believe that Russia interfered at all in our election. Trump's relationship with Russia does not trouble the majority of Republican voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken yesterday - after the Helsinki summit - found that about 70% of Republican voters felt that Mr. Trump had done nothing wrong. That's partisanship for you. Evidence means little to most voters; partisan loyalty means everything.

Your high school social studies teacher was only partly right. Voters should study campaign issues; most voters don't. People don't pick a candidate for the issues; people pick a candidate, and then agree with whatever the candidate's issues might be.

Researchers who study political communication have known ever since the 1948 Elmira, NY voting study that partisanship is the main factor in election decisions. People will change their issue beliefs willy-nilly to suit their candidate and party, not the other way around. Two years ago, Republicans thought that budget deficits were awful, but a Republican Congress passed the 2017 tax cut for the rich; now, most Republicans think that deficits are just fine (or blame them on Democrats). When President Ronald Reagan was anti-Russia, Republicans were anti-Russia. Now that President Trump is sort of pro-Russia, Republicans are, well, much less anti-Russia. For no real reason. That's politics.

People hold political opinions strongly, but flip them without losing a breath. That's partisanship.

Some Republicans spoke against Mr. Trump's appalling performance at Helsinki, and #TreasonSummit trended on Twitter. Mr. Trump later issued an obviously insincere claim that he "misspoke" in Helsinki. I don't think so. But, in the long run, although Mr. Trump's core supporters might wobble, they won't budge.

Could Mr. Trump's Helsinki speech harm him politically? Yes and no. Although his supporters will stay true and hold strong, Mr. Trump's shocking performance might motivate Democrats and Independents to show up at the polls in November. That, and pretty much only that, could make a political difference.

Also, once Congress figures out that the voters' opinions about Mr. Trump haven't changed, Republican representatives might mostly fall back into line. Their main goal is to win elections. Partisanship, not issues, not patriotism, not self-interest, not common sense, drives political opinion. Partisanship rules.

Image: By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=70916463

Earlier posts: 

Trump chose the wrong audience to spread conspiracy theories 

Why didn't Putin deny that he had compromised Trump?