Trump's Polarizing Rally in Kentucky. It's All about Getting Republicans to Vote.

Donald Trump, WH photo

President Donald Trump spoke yesterday at a political rally in the lovely town of Lexington, Kentucky. Trump’s nominal purpose was to encourage the reelection of unpopular Republican Governor Matt Bevin. But, sigh, Trump mostly talked about himself, as usual, and protested what he called the “impeachment hoax.” His greatest strength was what his opponents think is his greatest weakness: his rhetoric was nasty, polarizing, and fact-free. Why does that work? I’ll explain in a minute. First, however, let’s look at how polarizing Trump was. He talked about himself as the savior of the nation, while attacking the Democrats as vicious enemies to be suppressed.

Trump’s entire speech was polarizing. Here’s one example:

“You know they destroy anyone who holds traditional American values. All you have to do is ask the boys from Covington Catholic High School, some of whom are here tonight. The far left wants to impose their authoritarian ideology of the nation, telling you what to believe and how you should live.”

Look at the negative words: “destroy,” “authoritarian ideology.” Contrast that with the positive (presumably pro-Republican) words: “traditional American values.” In Trump’s speech, one side is good and the other bad. Two opposite poles: polarization. 

For another example of polarizing speech, here’s what Trump said about Bevin’s opponent and the economy:

“He’d take a giant wrecking ball to the greatest economy. In the history of the state of Kentucky the greatest economy, you've ever had he's going to destroy it and it won't be long. It'll go very quickly, you know you're all sitting there. Everybody has good jobs, you don't like it. You go find another job.”

Trump also tossed in “crooked Hillary Clinton” and “open borders.” Hillary Clinton is not running any more, of course, but it still gives Republicans a thrill to call her names.

And:

“Beshear is too liberal, too extreme and too dangerous for the state of Kentucky. Tomorrow, everybody needs to vote Republican.”

Pretty nasty, isn’t it?

To Trump, Democrats are not just opponents; they are enemies. Let us recall that the House of Representatives recently approved rules for an impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s alleged extortion of the Ukrainian government. Trump didn’t just say this was wrong; he considered it an attack on the American system. This is consistent with conservative rhetoric that the Democrats are trying to overturn the election:

“Yeah, I think, with last week’s quote, the far left has declared war on American democracy itself. These people are lunatics. In the face of these attacks, Republicans are the most unified that I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been watching them, and been a big part of them for a long time.”

This is not language of political discourse. There is no talk of what the British call a “loyal opposition.” Democrats are enemies. We are at war. Polarizing.

While Trump’s awareness of the basic functioning of American government seems to be shrinking every week, his political instincts are sharper than ever. He pointed out that the impeachment process has caused Republicans to be “the most unified that I’ve ever seen.” That’s exactly the point. Here’s why. Polarizing rhetoric offends many people. The mainstream media have had a field day pointing out the many factual errors that Trump made during this speech. They are certainly right in that neither Trump nor his supporters have the facts right. But the problem with fact-checking is that polarized people don’t care about facts.

More generally, the mainstream media loves to attack Trump for saying outrageous things. So what? Of course polarizing rhetoric is outrageous. That’s the point. When mainstream authorities criticize Trump for being outrageous, they are playing directly into his hand.

Polarizing rhetoric can never convince a majority of the total public. Instead, the idea of polarizing rhetoric is to motivate your supporters, even if you offend lots of other people. Contrary to popular belief, American elections are generally not decided by people who change their minds and vote for a different candidate from their usual preference. That kind of thing happens, of course, but not as often as the public thinks. Voter turnout decides elections. You win the election by getting your supporters to the polls and discouraging your opponent’s voters.Trump's base, White Evangelical voters, has a traditionally low participation rate. If he gets them to the polls, he could tip the election.

Trump boasted that Republicans were unified. His rally’s purpose was to get people excited. Facts were not the point. Reasoned argument was not the point. Enthusiasm was the point. 

Still, we need to wonder whether Trump is getting Democrats so angry that they will vote in large numbers. That’s the downside of polarization.

The American voting public has a very low participation rate compared to other democracies, and getting people riled up so they will show up to vote makes far more difference than changing people’s minds. So, Trump could call people names, make up facts, rant and rave, and expect to do a lot of good for the Republican cause. Is this any way to run a nation? Of course not. Is this a way to win elections? Maybe. Let’s see what happens after the polls close tonight.

To understand the importance of voter turnout in election, there is still no better source than Dan Nimmo’s classic book The Political Persuaders. Radical organizer Saul Alinsky talks about polarization in his handbook Rules for Radicals, but readers can get a more academic understanding of polarization by reading The Rhetoric of Agitation and Control by John W. Bowers, Donovan J. Ochs, Richard J. Jensen, and David P. Shulz. And, yes, in case you’re interested, Trump relies almost entirely on well-tested methods of radical rhetoric. As White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said, “deal with it.”