Donald Trump Created the "Illusion of Proof" in His April 13, 2020 Coronavirus Task Force Press Conference

Image: WhiteHouse.gov

When CBS correspondent Paula Reid asked President Donald Trump at yesterday’s Coronavirus Task Force Briefing what he accomplished in February after buying the nation time by restricting travel from China, he promised to give her a list. His exact words: “will give you a list.” Was a list  forthcoming? No, of course not.

Likewise, during the same event, when CNN correspondent Kaitlan Collins asked who told President Trump that he had “absolute authority” over when the economy reopens, he fussed and argued a bit, and said,  “You know what we're going to do? We're going to write up papers on this.” Has the paper been forthcoming? No, of course not. In fact, he backed off his foolish claim the next day.

Trump created the impression that he had solid research behind his claims. However, he had no evidence at all behind them. So, like a stage magician, he created the illusion that he could prove his silly statements. Crooked politicians have used this tactic for years. More than half a century ago, communication professor Barnet Baskerville, one of the great speech and debate scholars of his generation, wrote an important article about “The Illusion of Proof.” We all know what proof is, do we not? Proof occurs when a speaker gives facts, expert opinion, and reasons to support a position. Illusion occurs when we think we see something that was never real. Capable people give evidence. Stage magicians don't give evidence; instead, they create illusions. The illusion of proof occurs when a speaker makes it sound as if he or she is giving proof, but is giving no proof at all. It's fun to watch a stage magician create an illusion. It is dangerous when politicians create them.

The illusion of proof is different from when a speaker gives bad proof or makes bad arguments. The illusion of proof arises when the speaker makes it sound as if there is proof, even though there is no proof whatsoever. Baskerville’s example was Richard Nixon’s Checkers Speech, in which Nixon talked about evidence that his lawyers and accountants had prepared, but never actually said what that evidence was. We hear this kind of thing when people spread conspiracy theories: “just you wait, and we will soon see proof that President Obama forged his birth certificate.” Or: “just you wait, and we will soon see proof that China created the coronavirus in a biowarfare laboratory.”

All of that is nonsense. If you have proof, say what it is. If you don’t have proof, you can, if you are dishonest and sneaky enough, promise that the proof will come later. Or, if you are really nasty, you can say that you have evidence, but say that it is secret. The public should never let this trick fool them.

Let’s start with what Paula Reid asked. Here’s the entire exchange, courtesy of a Salon transcript. (I added the italics.):

"Reid: What did you do with that time that you bought? The argument is that you bought yourself some time. You didn't use it to prepare hospitals. You didn't use it to ramp up testing. Right now, nearly 20 million people are unemployed.

Trump: You're so disgraceful. It's so disgraceful the way you say that….

Reid: Tens of thousands of Americans are dead. How is … this rant supposed to make people feel confident in an unprecedented crisis?… What did your administration do in February for the time that your travel ban bought you?

Trump: A lot.

Reid: What?

Trump: A lot, and in fact, we'll give you a list…. We did a lot. Look, look, you know you're a fake."

So, what did President Trump do? “A lot,” he said. What specific things did he do? He said he would give her list. He then called her a “fake,” which is classic misdirection, a standard magician's method. (It was also an ill-mannered thing to say.) Seriously if Trump had done something, wouldn’t he remember? If he had actually done something, would he not want to brag about it right then and there? And, guess what, we still haven’t seen the alleged list. Trump created the illusion that he and his staff  had done a lot of work to provide evidence, but, in real life, there was no evidence of any kind.

He created the illusion of proof a second time. Does the president have unlimited authority? A large part of the briefing consisted of rambling and dissension over this question: “There is debate over what authority you have to order the country reopened.”

Collins refocused attention on this issue after Trump changed the subject:

"Collins: You said when someone is president of the United States, their authority is total. That is not true. Who told you that?

Trump: You know what we're going to do? We're going to write up papers on this.

Collins: Has any governor agreed that you have the authority to decide when their states …

Trump: I haven't asked anybody because. … You know why? Because I don't have to ….

Collins: But who told you the president has the total authority?

Trump: Enough!"

So, President Trump said something ridiculous: that the president has absolute authority. After other questioners had brought the subject up, Collins nailed it: “That is not true. Who told you that?”

Obviously, no qualified person had told him such a thing. Trump said that his staff – “we” – “were going to write up papers on this.” Incompetent though President Trump’s staff might be, he doesn’t employ anyone stupid enough as to think that the president has absolute authority over anything. Trump as much admitted it: “I haven’t asked anybody because.… You know why? Because I don’t have to…” Collins followed up: “who told you…?” Trump refused to answer: “Enough!”

Again, Trump created the illusion of proof. He said that “We are going to write up papers on this.” When he said that, he created the impression – an obviously false impression – that his staff had been working on the legal and constitutional issues and were prepared to produce a document about it. In real life, however, he talked with no one, no papers were forthcoming, and there was no constitutional or legal basis for what he said. There are no papers on the subject and there never will be a paper on the subject. It’s ridiculous. But the way Trump phrasef things created the illusion that actual research had been conducted.

The public would like to assume that the President of the United States has access to experts and research capabilities, and that he says things that have merit. Dream on. 

It’s one thing to present terrible arguments. I suppose everyone makes bad arguments occasionally. It’s something else, also bad, to make a controversial claim and give no evidence for it. The illusion of proof is something even worse: by using misdirection and spreading confusion, a speaker creates the impression that evidence exists and even says something about what the evidence is like, but the evidence doesn't exist. In some ways, it’s worse than lying: when Trump says things that are not true, that’s shameful. Trump said that he would produce "a list." He said that he would produce "papers." Of course, that was untrue. When he says that evidence exists and will be forthcoming, when, in fact, there is no evidence and no evidence will ever appear, the level of deception is even worse than mere lying.

Here is a complete video on C-SPAN of the press conference with a rough transcript. Please note that the official but sneaky White House transcript is incomplete, and it omits substantial chunks of the exchanges above. Baskerville's article is not readily available on the Internet, but a large library should be able to get you a copy. Here's the citation:  Barnet Baskerville, "The Illusion of Proof," Western Speech, 25 (1961): 236-242. The journal is now called Western Journal of Communication.