Wednesday, November 2, 2022

Is There Such a Thing as a Stupid Question? The Attack against Paul Pelosi Led Conspiracy Theorists to Make Bogus Arguments

A few days after the horrendous attack on Paul Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi’s husband, conspiracy theories continue to flourish. 

Suspicion underlies all conspiracy theories. The newest version of the conspiracy theories use two basic tactics. First, the conspiracy theorists 7ask endless questions. Second, when proven wrong, they view this as proof that they were right. Both tactics are utterly bogus. 

The attack occurred when a deranged right-wing conspiracy theorist broke into Pelosi's home with a hammer. Tricking him, Pelosi surreptitiously called 911. When the police arrived, the intruder grabbed the hammer and smashed Pelosi's skull. 

The initial conspiracy theories, which I discussed in my previous post, disintegrated after the government filed charging documents against the attacker. Those conspiracy theories had falsely implied that the attacker was Pelosi's lover. Instead, it turns out that the alleged attacker, David DePape, was a right-wing conspiracy theorist, not a hippie and not Pelosi’s paramour, that he intended political violence, and that he beat Pelosi with a hammer that changed hands during the incident. Those simple facts totally defeated the conspiracy theories that had flooded the Internet. 

Never fear! Conspiracy theorists are nothing if not flexible.


Conspiracy theorists ask questions, but they rarely have answers

The conspiracy theorist's tried-and-true tactic is to ask endless questions about supposedly suspicious events. Unfortunately, questions are not proof. Questions never prove anything. Not ever. An honest question is an attempt to get information. Conspiracy theorists, however, ask questions to create a dark image while not undertaking the burden to prove anything.

That may explain why, as his initial conspiracy theory fell apart, right-wing filmmaker and conspiracy theorist Dinesh D’Souza simply started asking more questions. He focused on the seemingly innocuous issue of finding security footage of the attack:
“Did the Pelosis not have security personnel or at least an alarm system? No surveillance cameras? Those are pretty standard in nice homes. Moreover, it's a dangerous city and she's the House Speaker. So are they really stupid, or are we not getting the full story?” 
All questions! No actual claims! Nevertheless, look how clever his questions are. Yes, I'm sure we are all wondering about security system failures. Still, asking the question in that tone makes it sound as if the official story has a gigantic hole in it. Yes, like many large cities, San Francisco has crime. At the same time, I have felt perfectly safe walking around various neighborhoods in San Francisco late at night. D’Souza is no doubt playing on conservative tropes that San Francisco is a terribly dangerous place: one conspiracy theory trying to prove another.

Did D'Souza prove anything? No, all he did was ask questions. 

As it happens, D'Souza was not the only conspiracy theorist to ask a series of questions. Similarly, also dealing with the collapse of the original conspiracy theory, pundit Michael Savage of “A Savage Nation” asked more questions about the security arrangements:
“why won't the police release the Bodycam footage? How does a stranger get into a ft. knox local mansion without triggering an alarm? who at this level of gov’t does not have 24/7 security? why was the glass broken out ward not inward?” [all tweets are uncorrected, copied from the original]
It's not that these are bad questions. I am sure that it is time to reevaluate security arrangements for members of Congress. Still, we all know that this was not Savage’s point. His real point—cleverly implied by his questions--is that there is something wrong with the official account of the attack because it is implausible that a break-in could have occurred.

My real point, of course, is that questions never prove anything. Questions, unfortunately, are all these conspiracy theorists have to offer us. Like children who torment their parents with endless questions, conspiracy theorists never relent. 


When conspiracy theorists are wrong, they think this proves they are right

Questions are not the only tactic. When they turn out to be wrong, conspiracy theorists say this proves that they were right all along. Here's how the reasoning goes. Conspiracy theorists think that all the authorities are liars. They trust nothing in official statements. In this case, they are especially upset that anyone would accuse a right-wing conspiracy theorist of committing violence. After all, that makes all conspiracy theorists look bad. That’s why they tried to make DePape out to be Pelosi’s lover. Once their account was proven wrong, however, this merely proves that they were right all along. 

No, that doesn’t make sense. Still, that is how conspiracy theorists talk. Let's look at some examples of how their logic works.

Indeed, “Enigmatic America,” a social media user of no particular prominence, illustrates this rhetorical trope perfectly:
“Police said different at the scene, Pelosi said the guy was his friend, the guy took Pelosi hammer, hit him with it in front of cops according to police. I am sure the statement on video by police is missing now, somewhat on Twitter kept it. Media lies& if u differ, Conspiracy.”
There is a twist in that logic. The initial conspiracy theory, which may have been partly based on incomplete and inaccurate news reports, but which grew mostly from random speculation, turned out to be wrong. Would that slow a conspiracy theorist down? Of course not. When the initial conspiracy theory disintegrated, this proved, to Enigmatic America, that the original story (much of which conspiracy theorists had invented), was incorrect. Therefore, he concludes, the media outlets must be lying.

D’Souza used a similar tactic:
Pelosi knew the guy. Well no, he didn't. There were 3 people there. No, two. Both guys had hammers. No, only one hammer. Both of them were in their underwear. No, just Pelosi. Is it a surprise we don't believe the narrative when the facts must be heavily edited to conform to it?”
It appears that there was only one hammer, but the two men each held it at different times. Apparently DePape held the hammer, then Pelosi dropped it, and then DePape grabbed it and hit his victim. The conspiracy theorists drew the false conclusion that there were two hammers. When it turns out there was only one hammer, they said the authorities had changed their story. Actually, of course, all that happened is that the conspiracy theorists jumped to a conclusion when they had no evidence. Similarly, when the FBI report said that someone opened the door to admit the police, they thought this this proved that three people were in the home. But that does not follow from the evidence, does it? 

How can being wrong prove that you are right? It can't, of course, but that twisted logic is how conspiracy theorists work. 

In other words, D’Souza’s original accusations turned out to be wrong. He could, of course, admit that he was wrong. Instead, he blamed his error on the authorities. He implies that he was wrong the first time because the authorities deceived him. I'm sure that's always possible (police do sometimes tell lies, as we all know), but, in this case, the conspiracy theorist has been jumping to unproven conclusions left and right and then resented being corrected.


The underlying theme: suspicion!

Once we assume that the authorities are dishonest, we also assume that everything they say is untrue.

This is, however, entirely circular. The conspiracy theorist’s only real goal is to prove that the authorities are evil. The conspiracy theorist proves this by refusing to trust them. At some point, you need real evidence. If one is to be intellectually honest, one must always be prepared to revise opinions in the face of refutation. Since they simply shift ground instead of admitting error, the conspiracy theorists utterly abandon all pretense of integrity.

Now, of course, real conspiracies occur all the time. Criminals, revolutionaries, and other nasty people do conspire with one another. The Watergate conspiracy was real. Real conspiracies are proven by evidence.  In contrast, conspiracy theories, which tend to be untrue, do not produce evidence. That is why conspiracy theorists reach into their imaginations to ask endless questions, to squirm and change their stories constantly, to hold the authorities to a high standard while holding themselves to no standard at all. 

None of this pattern of thinking is new. Over the centuries, conspiracy theorists have spread across the political spectrum.  At the moment, however, what bothers me the most is that an entire political movement--the political party of Lincoln, Grant, McKinley, and Eisenhower--has disconnected itself from reality. That cannot be good. 


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Yesterday's post about conspiracy theories concerning this horrific attack: 



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