“Most of all, keep the faith. Remind the folks that the power is in their hands. This is not a referendum; this is a choice. And the more people we get out to vote, we win. We win.”
Biden taught two basic lessons: first that the side that gets out the vote will win, and second, that the only poll that counts is the voting on Election Day. Polls are just opinions. The election, and only the election, decides the nation’s fate: “this is not a referendum, this is a choice.” Everything else in the campaign is smokescreen. Getting out the vote is all that matters.
I wish this were not so. My fifth-grade teacher, Mrs. Dixon, told us to study the issues, get news from more than once source, and make informed decision. Alas! That is rarely how it works.
Instead, researchers have known ever since the 1948 Elmira, New York study that people vote by party affiliation. Opinions about issues are not the main factor; for, as it happens, people fit their beliefs to their party. They don’t choose a party because they agree with the issues. Political scientist Dan Nimmo pointed out that, to the extent issues do matter, it’s the single-issue voters. These are, this time around, the fanatics who will vote according to the abortion issue, and nothing else.
Nor are many people persuadable. For example, Democrats waste too much energy trying to convince Republicans that immigration is good. That’s a waste. Nothing will convince Republicans of that. Although the economy is at near-record low unemployment and solid economic growth, nothing will convince Republicans that the economy is doing fairly well. Even Republicans who recognize their party’s downhill slide will still vote for Republicans. Nothing will convince Democrats that they are threatened by immigrant invasions. In fact, remember that Donald Trump’s appalling speech at the Helsinki summit cost him little if any support.
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Nor do early polls mean much. Just as was the case in Elmira in 1948, voters pretend that they are judging the issues and coming to a decision. That rarely happens in real life. On Election Day, people vote for their party. Period. In Elmira, if researchers learned a voter’s party preference, socioeconomic status, and ethnic group, they could predict how that person would vote with 90%+ accuracy.
So, the election campaign’s only real purpose is to get your own voters motivated while discouraging the other side’s voters.
Biden’s point is, really, the only campaign point that affects the election in a big way: “The more people we get out to vote, we win.” Yes, everything else is smokescreen. An election campaign’s purpose is to affect voter turnout. A political party that forgets that basic principle will face big trouble.
Today is Election Day. If you don’t vote, you don’t count. No one cares about your parades, demonstrations, protests, or riots. They only care about your vote.
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