Don't Expect Same Day Election Results. Sheesh.

Let’s zap out one ridiculous election conspiracy theory. All over social media, conservative posters insist that they need to know the election results – the actual count – on election night. If they do not see results on election night, they say, it is because the Democrats are using the time to manufacture votes.

This is indescribably ludicrous. Unfortunately, the conspiracy theory spreads because news reports and real life are not the same. 

Final, official vote counts have never been available on election night. Not ever.

Florida, which has one of the most polished election systems (they cleaned up after the 2000 hanging chad debacle), needs about three days to count, verify, and tabulate every vote. Inefficient states like Pennsylvania need much longer. That doesn't make them wrong, just slow. We could get 190 million or more votes by tonight. Some of the votes will be placed on electronic voting machines – which still get checked, verified, and tabulated – while mail-in votes take much, much longer because the envelopes need to be checked and opened, and then the ballots must be scanned. It takes time. 

What confuses people is that – often but not always – news networks broadcast statistical projections. Using huge computers, monstrous databases, and sophisticated statistical processes, they can look at incomplete election results and extrapolate who will probably win any given election once all the votes are counted. Those projections are just educated guesses. The networks are usually right, but they are still, basically, guessing. 

Networks do not produce an official count. Network projections are not final results. 

Worse, if an election is very close (and the 2024 presidential election could be stunningly close), and the early results come within the statistics’ margin of error, then the networks wait before they project the results. The closer the election, the longer they delay. That’s just how statistics work. What if the projections beat the statistical margin of error? Guess what! There is still a (small) margin of error! 

So, no one guarantees that projections are right. Statistics are estimates. The networks are very good at estimating, but they are still just estimating.

A tricky factor is that the networks once based their statistical projections on exit polls. However, many voters today vote by mail, and exit polls no longer mean much. Ignore them.  

Earlier Post: Were the Polls Wrong in 2020? And, if so, Why?

So, when you watch the election results, be sure to distinguish between the official election results – which we will not know right away – and the networks’ statistical projection of what they think the results will be once they are all tabulated.

Appearance versus reality. TV networks do not decide the elections. Only state government officials have that right. They will take their time. Sometimes they will face problems. Everything they do has to be checked, witnessed, and double-checked. That takes more time. So, let them do their jobs. Calm down, and do not expect this very close election to be decided right away. Pay no attention to unhinged conspiracy theorists, political operatives, talk radio hosts, podcasters, or Russian bots. Hang tight, take a deep breath, and wait for the facts. Thank you. 

by William D. Harpine

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P.S. Yes, we all love conspiracy theories. Shame on us.

Earlier Post: 

Nutty Epstein Conspiracy Theories: Did Hillary Kill Him? Trump? Putin? Jack the Ripper? King Kong? Before We Believe a Conspiracy Theory, We Need Evidence.

P.P.S.: Follow-up. With 99% of the votes counted by the morning of November 6, the day after the election, networks project Trump to win. Still no official count, of course. However, the conspiracy theories will die--only because Republicans no longer need them. 

Copyright 2024 by William D. Harpine

Image: State of Texas!