Trump and Conspiracy Theories

Conventional wisdom holds that Donald Trump believes in many conspiracy theories, and that this belief system makes him unqualified to be president, and that he was elected in spite of this character flaw. Trump's speeches certainly contained many conspiracy theories.

An article in the reliably liberal Huffington Post points out that Trump has held many conspiracy theories, claiming that "He's long presented the absurd and false as fact." For example, Trump told a group of Southern Californians that the government caused the state's ongoing drought by sending water out to sea. Rather unlikely, don't you think?

Another explanation, however, makes more sense. What Trump's critics miss is that a great many Americans, probably a majority, believe at least one unproven conspiracy theory. Most, not some, Americans believe that Kennedy was assassinated by the CIA, or the FBI, or the Cubans, or the Russians, or.... Bigfoot? Who knows, since there is little actual evidence for any of it. Worse, some conspiracies, such as the Watergate cover-up, turned out to be real.

Basically, there is no good reason to think that belief in unjustified conspiracy theories turns all that many voters away from a candidate. Of course, Trump's conspiracy theories differ from conspiracy theories sometimes held by liberals, such as the 9/11 conspiracy theories or the HIV conspiracy theories. Many people are inclined to mistrust the government, and are therefore predisposed to believe outlandish explanations about secret cabals. In fact, returning to the drought conspiracy theories, when my wife and I visited central California a few years back, we saw quite a few road signs opposing the government-caused drought. Wow! Those people attribute great powers to the government.

When real conspiracies occur, and they do, it is important to flush them out into the open. It is equally important not to be carried away by silly conspiracy theories that lack underlying proof. How do you tell the difference between real conspiracies and unproven ones? My earlier posts give some ideas.

Overall, however, many voters would be quite content to know that Trump accepted many conspiracy theories. That's because many voters themselves hold similar beliefs. Indeed, it is quite possible that they found his conspiracy speeches reassuring, thinking something like, "At last! A candidate who will protect us against conspiracies!" So, the conspiracy rhetoric that filled many of Trump's speeches, and which his opponents ridiculed, may have been a  powerful persuasive strategy.