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| Joe Biden, White House photo |
Yesterday, February 18, 2022, United States President Joe Biden used a White House speech to warn the world that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to invade Ukraine in the next few days. Frightening news indeed. Biden spent much of his speech discussing a Russian disinformation campaign. Russia falsely accuses Ukraine of starting the conflict. The disinformation campaign presumably helps to solidify Russian public opinion while spreading confusion around the world. The disinformation provides an imposing (but false) moral justification for the impending war. At the same time, however, Biden pointed out that Russia’s disinformation campaign defies logic. That’s no surprise.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has ancient roots. Europe’s rulers have for centuries divided Ukraine into pieces and kicked the country around like a soccer ball. Many Ukrainians, especially in the east, speak Russian, not Ukrainian, at home. As civil war breaks out, some eastern regions seek to align with Russia. Russia has already annexed the Crimea. A huge Russian army surrounds Ukraine and violence has already broken out. Ukraine’s problems are complex. The propaganda that Biden discussed is not.
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Earlier Post: How Do Political Bots Spread Propaganda?
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The Russian Disinformation Campaign in Ukraine
Biden pointed out that the Russian government is flooding their own public with false information. Let us be clear that disinformation is not just wrong information. Disinformation intentionally replaces truths with falsehoods. Disinformation attempts to remove reality from public discourse.
So, Biden established that the Russian propaganda follows a long-standing pattern. That simple act of logic should, one would hope, help people realize that Russia was spreading propaganda. But will that work? Every time? Will it work this time? Who is listening? Who is thinking independently?
Earlier Post: European President Ursula von der Leyen Called for European Unity during the Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Earlier Post: Former Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch Worked Hard to Establish Her Credibility
That might work. Accepted persuasion theory suggests that logic can persuade people, but, alas, only under certain conditions. Logic might persuade people if the audience members feel qualified to analyze the issue and are willing to take the time to do so. Generally, in the absence of logical thinking, people might instead believe whatever they have heard most frequently, or to believe things because they find the source attractive. By trying to get people to think about how illogical the Russian misinformation is, Biden took the high road. Let us hope that more and more listeners take the high road as well. Reason is humankind’s greatest gift. Will we use it?
Biden asked a lot from his listeners. Many people know little about foreign policy, and Ukraine (my maternal grandparents’ home country), seems so far away. Many people worry more about their own finances or health than they do about foreign affairs. Still, a republic’s citizens owe it to themselves to understand matters of world-shaking significance. Will we learn to evaluate propaganda, or will we just swallow whatever is fed to us? Let’s hope for the best.
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Research Note: The Elaboration Likelihood Model, which I have discussed several times in my blog, says that there are two routes to persuasion. Listeners use the Central Route when they devote time and energy to evaluating the evidence, weighing arguments and counter arguments, and considering whether an argument makes logical sense. Otherwise, people are inclined to respond to persuasion by the Peripheral Route, which requires less effort, but produces less solid attitude and behavior change. You might want to read this excellent explanation written by the Elaboration Likelihood Model’s creators.
Historical Notes: Over the centuries, Russia’s spy agencies have become incredibly skilled at producing sophisticated, often hateful disinformation. This dates all the way back to the czars. Russian governments come and go, but Russia’s secret services live on.
Earlier Post: How Do Political Bots Spread Propaganda?
_____________________
The Russian Disinformation Campaign in Ukraine
Biden pointed out that the Russian government is flooding their own public with false information. Let us be clear that disinformation is not just wrong information. Disinformation intentionally replaces truths with falsehoods. Disinformation attempts to remove reality from public discourse.
Why would Russia spread disinformation? Well, no sensible public actually wants to fight wars. Biden’s point was that the Russian government spreads false information to overcome the public’s natural reluctance. Thus, the Russian government can launch small attacks and blame them on Ukraine, hoping that the fog of war will conceal their intentions. Similarly, the Russian government can claim that Ukraine is marshalling an attack against Russia, hoping that patriotism will blind Russian citizens to the more troubling reality.
Disinformation must be countered. So, Biden discussed how Russia used misinformation to spread confusion about recent Russian atrocities:
What about Critical Thinking?
Biden next showed the obvious holes in the Russian propaganda. His first point was that no evidence supported the Russian perspective. That, in itself, is unlikely to persuade anyone. Disinformation specialists know how to create false evidence. Realizing that, Biden next pointed out that the Russian propaganda was illogical. A moment’s reflection shows that Ukraine has nowhere near the military capacity to take on a major power like Russia. (Propaganda artists, of course, work hard to make sure that their listeners never engage in the tiniest moment of reflection.) Biden explained those points simply:
The Propagandists’ Playbook
Biden next discussed the consistent Russian trend of proposing pretexts to justify their planned invasion. Biden’s persuasion tactic was to establish a trend. Since people expect the future to resemble the past, Biden sought to help people see that the Russian propaganda is not an isolated event, but rather part of a long-standing pattern of deception:
“For example, a shelling of a Ukrainian kindergarten yesterday, which Russia has falsely asserted was carried out by Ukraine. We also continue to see more and more disinformation being pushed out by — to the Russian public, including the Russian-backed separatists, claiming that Ukraine is planning to launch a massive offensive attack in the Donbas.”
What about Critical Thinking?
Biden next showed the obvious holes in the Russian propaganda. His first point was that no evidence supported the Russian perspective. That, in itself, is unlikely to persuade anyone. Disinformation specialists know how to create false evidence. Realizing that, Biden next pointed out that the Russian propaganda was illogical. A moment’s reflection shows that Ukraine has nowhere near the military capacity to take on a major power like Russia. (Propaganda artists, of course, work hard to make sure that their listeners never engage in the tiniest moment of reflection.) Biden explained those points simply:
“Well, look, there is simply no evidence of these assertions, and it and devies [sic] — it defies basic logic to believe the Ukrainians would choose this moment, with well over 150,000 troops arrayed on its borders, to escalate a year-long conflict.”Continuing, Biden reviewed more of Russia’s falsehoods:
“Russia state media also continues to make phony allegations of a genocide taking place in the Donbas and push fabricated claims warning about Ukraine’s attack on Russia without any evidence. That’s just what I’m sure Ukraine is thinking of doing — attacking Russia.”Will Biden’s point persuade people? In the 21st century political world, I’m beginning to despair that people will slow down for even a moment to think about basic logic. That, however, is exactly what Biden asked his audience to do.
The Propagandists’ Playbook
Biden next discussed the consistent Russian trend of proposing pretexts to justify their planned invasion. Biden’s persuasion tactic was to establish a trend. Since people expect the future to resemble the past, Biden sought to help people see that the Russian propaganda is not an isolated event, but rather part of a long-standing pattern of deception:
“All these are consistent with the playbook the Russians have used before: to set up a false justification to act against Ukraine. This is also in line with the pretext scenarios that the United States and our Allies and partners have been warning about for weeks.”
Yet, disinformation often works. People often accept it, willingly and uncritically. The New York Times reports that most Russians believe the crisis is not Russia’s fault. Their government’s relentless propaganda campaign has bore fruit. People can, of course, choose to believe one government or another. Or, they can engage in critical thinking to sort good information from bad.
So, Biden established that the Russian propaganda follows a long-standing pattern. That simple act of logic should, one would hope, help people realize that Russia was spreading propaganda. But will that work? Every time? Will it work this time? Who is listening? Who is thinking independently?
_____________________
Earlier Post: European President Ursula von der Leyen Called for European Unity during the Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Earlier Post: Former Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch Worked Hard to Establish Her Credibility
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Is Logic Persuasive?
Believe it or not, persuasion experts have argued for decades about whether logical argument even persuades people. Of course, disinformation succeeds only if people abandon logical thinking. So, it was reasonable that Biden attempted to engage his audience’s rational thought processes.
Is Logic Persuasive?
Believe it or not, persuasion experts have argued for decades about whether logical argument even persuades people. Of course, disinformation succeeds only if people abandon logical thinking. So, it was reasonable that Biden attempted to engage his audience’s rational thought processes.
That might work. Accepted persuasion theory suggests that logic can persuade people, but, alas, only under certain conditions. Logic might persuade people if the audience members feel qualified to analyze the issue and are willing to take the time to do so. Generally, in the absence of logical thinking, people might instead believe whatever they have heard most frequently, or to believe things because they find the source attractive. By trying to get people to think about how illogical the Russian misinformation is, Biden took the high road. Let us hope that more and more listeners take the high road as well. Reason is humankind’s greatest gift. Will we use it?
Biden asked a lot from his listeners. Many people know little about foreign policy, and Ukraine (my maternal grandparents’ home country), seems so far away. Many people worry more about their own finances or health than they do about foreign affairs. Still, a republic’s citizens owe it to themselves to understand matters of world-shaking significance. Will we learn to evaluate propaganda, or will we just swallow whatever is fed to us? Let’s hope for the best.
_____________________
Research Note: The Elaboration Likelihood Model, which I have discussed several times in my blog, says that there are two routes to persuasion. Listeners use the Central Route when they devote time and energy to evaluating the evidence, weighing arguments and counter arguments, and considering whether an argument makes logical sense. Otherwise, people are inclined to respond to persuasion by the Peripheral Route, which requires less effort, but produces less solid attitude and behavior change. You might want to read this excellent explanation written by the Elaboration Likelihood Model’s creators.
Historical Notes: Over the centuries, Russia’s spy agencies have become incredibly skilled at producing sophisticated, often hateful disinformation. This dates all the way back to the czars. Russian governments come and go, but Russia’s secret services live on.
You might want to read this fascinating article about the Russian government’s 19th Century racist forgery, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. The article is written by my communication colleague Marouf Hasian, Jr. Hasian is one of America’s top scholars of public persuasion, and I’ve had the privilege of appearing on the same panel as him a couple of times at communication conventions. The article hides behind a paywall, but most libraries should be able to get you a copy.
On a broader scale, this article by Seth Jones reviews Russian disinformation aimed at corrupting American elections over the past 60+ years. Indeed, the Russian government has long been skilled at spreading propaganda.
On a broader scale, this article by Seth Jones reviews Russian disinformation aimed at corrupting American elections over the past 60+ years. Indeed, the Russian government has long been skilled at spreading propaganda.
How complex is Ukraine’s cultural history? Just as an example, both of my maternal grandparents considered themselves to be 100% Ukrainian by birth. Yet, neither was born under Ukrainian sovereignty. My grandfather was born in a Ukrainian-speaking area of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. His hometown is part of modern Ukraine. (I have not yet been able to trace my grandmother’s birth.) As I said, rulers have kicked Ukraine back and forth throughout its history. We are all, I suppose, created by our past.
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