Will History Repeat Itself? Trump and the Art of Making Horrible Threats

January 6, 2021 Capitol Riot

When world leaders make threats, they usually mean them. The public must heed. Leaders make threats to guide their devoted followers. Donald Trump does this often. Hitler did it before him. Threats polarize the public, which divides itself into strong supporters and meek opponents. Now, since the polarizing leader cares little about the meek opponents, it is the strong supporters who make a difference. We often fear secret conspiracies, but it is the public announcements that should terrify us.

For example, debating against his successor, Joe Biden, in September 2020, Donald Trump specifically alerted a right-wing terrorist group to prepare in case he lost the election:

“Proud Boys, stand back and stand by. But I’ll tell you what, I’ll tell you what: somebody’s got to do something about Antifa and the left because this is not a right-wing problem this is a left-wing.” [sic]  

Threats Prepare for Action

“Stand back and stand by” was a threat that laid the groundwork for action. Leaders, even the cruelest, stupidest, most authoritarian leaders, need support. They need followers who they can mobilize into action. They need soldiers to carry the rifles. They need pilots to drop the bombs. They need angry mobs to crush the opposition. That is why they state their mission coldly, plainly, and bluntly.

Of course, on January 6, 2021 thousands of Capitol rioters followed Trump’s commands. Trump had alerted and guided his supporters. Trump’s comment to the Proud Boys was not an idle threat. It was part of his method. 

 We should never have dismissed his threat. Leaders must instruct their public. Indeed, in December 2020, after losing the election, Trump announced the January 6 riot in advance:

“Big protests in D.C. on January 6. Be there. Will be wild!”

Indeed, as prosecutor Jack Smith recently said about the January 6 riot, this “does not happen” without Trump.

Sadly, the public seemed neither to believe nor care that Trump had threatened to revolt against the election. When January 6 arrived, Congress went blithely along, solemnly counting the electoral votes, oblivious while an angry mob collected outside. Indeed, even today, years later, many people continue to deny the obvious.

Indeed, it was not just the Proud Boys who were ready to “stand back and stand by.” As I write this, a Republican-controlled Congressional subcommittee is holding hearings to rewrite the narrative of January 6. In those hearings, Trump-supporting Congressman Troy Nehls of Texas questioned reports that Capitol Police officers were injured that day. He said it was “Trump haters” who spread such claims. Last week a CBS/YouGov poll found that: “The percentage of Republicans who strongly disapprove of the Jan. 6 attack has dropped more than 20 points since January 2021 — from 51% then to 30% now.” Trump led; his voters followed.  

Trump's Speech of January 6, 2021: A "Firehose of Falsehood"

Trump's Second January 6 Speech Accidentally Spiked MAGA Conspiracy Theories


Does Trump Use Hitler’s Methods?

As I noted in my previous post, Hitler openly threatened the Holocaust in a major speech. 

Hitler Pretended to Be a Prophet, but He Was Really an Evil Führer

Hitler’s supporters trusted him. Did they really expect him to start a devastating war?  Did they really expect him to lead Germany truants? Probably not. But they should have believed his threats. Hitler was, months before the war, telling his supporters that massacres were coming. So, when Hitler told a cheering Reichstag in 1937, two years before the war in Europe, that he intended to abolish individual rights, he meant what he said:

“In the new German legal system which will be in force from now onwards the nation is placed above persons and property.”

Hitler was not just saying awful things, for he was also briefing and guiding his supporters. Totalitarians cannot, after all, work in secret!

Trump Continues to Make Threats

Greenland Town

Trump uses similar methods to propose annexing Greenland. Trump recently told a group of reporters:

“We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt chimed in:

“Utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option.”

Once again, despite a little public agitation, Trump’s meek opponents fail to take him seriously. A war over Greenland? It seems so incredible! Surely Trump is joking! Maybe Trump is just negotiating by extortion! Maybe he is just ranting!

Even podcaster Jesse Kelly, one of Trump’s most loyal supporters, denied that Trump meant what he said:

“People freaking out about Trump threatening military action for Greenland are all either dumb or lying. This is how he negotiates everything. And he’s been doing so publicly for a [sic] like 50 years now. Carrot and stick. He’s gonna buy it. He was always gonna buy it.”

How naïve! No, a thousand times no. Donald Trump, like all world leaders, leads by communicating. There is no other way to lead! He gives speeches. He makes statements. Those speeches and statements guide his supporters and organize their actions. The fact that he is a leader means that he is not working alone. He is leading other people. Now, Trump might change his mind, or his worried donors might stop him, but no one should ignore him. 

Worse, is our constitutional republic dying? Trump commented, just today, that:

“When you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election.” 

Was he facetious, as his spokesperson later claimed? Was this a joke, or a threat?

Totalitarian Rulers Lead by Threats

Polarization in Steve Bannon's Value Voters Summit Speech 

Trump does not need a majority. No polarizing leader needs a majority. All he needs is to motivate a core group of fanatical supporters. That is what polarization means. So, should we take Trump seriously when he threatens to war against our friends and neighbors? Honestly, we are fools if we do not. Should we take pleasure if his poll numbers drop? Maybe not. Once leaders start to polarize us, what difference do opinion polls make?

Prophecies? Threats? Bloviating? Instructions? Or warnings?  

by William D. Harpine

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Research Note: One finds surprisingly few research studies of Hitler's speaking. I'll mention two of the best. First, Haig A. Bosmajian's 1960 article "The Nazi Speaker's Rhetoric," is a good place to start. Unfortunately, it is behind a paywall, although a good library might be able to find a copy. 

Also, Randall L. Bytwerk's book Bending Spines: The Propagandas of Nazi Germany and the German Democratic Republic delves into the terrifying rhetorical pathology that made Hitler possible. I defy anyone to read this book and not see connections with Trump's rhetorical style.

There is no better source about polarization than the masterful study, The Rhetoric of Agitation and Control, by John W. Bowers, Donovan J. Ochs, Richard J. Jensen, and David P. Schulz.

On Trump's persuasive methods, Demagogue for President: The Rhetorical Genius of Donald Trump by Jennifer Mercieca is worth a careful look.

Copyright 2026 by William D. Harpine

Image of January 6 Capitol riot, by TapTheForwardAssist, 

Creative Commons License, via Wikimedia Commons

Image of Greenland town: Buiobuione, 

Creative Commons license, via Wikimedia Commons

Hitler Pretended to Be a Prophet, but He Was Really an Evil Führer

Reichstag in Ruins after WWII

 
I’ve been a prophet in my life very often and was mostly laughed at.” 

So said Adolf Hitler to the Reichstag on January 30, 1939. Was Hitler a prophet, as he claimed, or was he a tyrant organizing the Holocaust? Was Hitler’s speech a prophecy, or a warning? For he followed the path of all dictators, using speech to guide his foolish supporters—a path that want-to-be tyrants still follow today. He laid out his conspiracy theory, blaming Jews, not himself, for the coming war, and urged his supporters to unify. None of this was secret. To organize Germany for conflict, Hitler told his country exactly what to expect. Did the world heed his warning? No, sadly, not really. Do we, today, remember his warning? Of course not. 

Given the strong support that German Christians gave to Nazism, it is no accident that Hitler called himself a prophet. We think that a prophet predicts the future. However, someone who shapes the future would not be a prophet, but a leader – maybe a führer. To carry out his schemes, Hitler shaped the future. He identified an enemy and told his supporters how to meet the threat. That enemy did not need to be real. A conspiracy theory would do just fine.

Hitler, the Harbinger of the Modern Christian Right, Gave His Inaugural Speech

    

The Conspiracy Theory

Anyway, to pursue his theme of prophecy, Hitler needed to identify an enemy. He continued:  

“At the time of my struggle for power, it was primarily the Jewish people who only accepted my prophecies with laughter.” 

Prophecies? More like warnings. Hitler was not predicting the future; he was shaping it. Indeed, in this terrifying oration, with world war only months in the future, Hitler bluntly announced – prophesized – his plan to murder Jews en masse. He said: 

“Today I want to be a prophet again: If international financial Jewry in and outside Europe should succeed in plunging the peoples once again into a world war, then the result will not be the Bolshevization of the earth and thus the victory of Judaism, but annihilation the Jewish race in Europe.” [italics added] 

As he spoke, Hitler blamed Judaism for the coming world war:

“I believe that if the Jewish international press and propaganda laws were to be stopped, the understanding between the peoples would be established very quickly. Only these elements are constantly hoping for a war. But I believe in a long peace.”

And, as Hitler continued to rant against Jews:

“International Jewry may hope to achieve satisfaction in their vindictiveness and greed for profit, but that they represent the monstrous slander that can be done to a great and peace-loving people.”

So, Hitler predicted the coming war (that was his prophecy) and blamed it on Jews. 


The Plan

Holocaust Memorial, Albania

Now, why would he speak so boldly? First, leaders need popular support. Hitler could not murder six million Jews by himself. He needed to inspire countless thousands of men to fire the rifles and run the gas chambers. Second, he needed tell his followers his goals and ambitions. Otherwise, how could they act on their leader’s behalf? They needed guidance! Hitler always knew that public speaking was a leader’s most potent tool, and he had mastered the art. After all, a dictator can only lead if enough people are willing to follow. Dictators do not only rule by spreading fear, but also by persuading. 

Truly, Hitler, who we today consider to personify evil, did not became a dictator by himself. Nor could he wreak evil by himself. No, he became Chancellor of Germany by winning an election and building a coalition. Once in power, he transformed German government into a personality cult. As he did so, he publicly announced the evil that he planned.  

So, when he spread his conspiracy theory (“international financial Jewry”) and blamed the victims for his own wickedness (“plunging the peoples once again into a world war”), Hitler used his speech to set the philosophical and political stage for genocide. Nazis needed enemies! Only in a twisted sense would we call this prophecy.  Hitler’s underlying argument, his implied enthymeme, was that he prophesized war and strove to make his prophecy come true.  

Adolf Hitler's Speech in the Berlin Sportpalast: God and Power

The Lesson Forgotten

Hamburg after WWII Bombing

Yet, expecting him to help the economy (for a while, he did!), Hitler’s short-sighted supporters worried little. Instead of being chastened, they were inspired. History teaches the result. Mass murder. A brutal war. Seven short years in the future, Germany would be reduced to a pile of smoking rubble. 

Now, Hitler did not really state a prophecy. What he in fact did was to lead his deluded followers. Indeed, in this speech Hitler called for the “disciplined and obedient popular community.” Germany and the world should have heard a warning.

Hitler was briefing his enthusiastic faction. Germany was no poverty-stricken nest of ignorance. No, Germany in 1939 was a center of religion, philosophy, art, and music. The great philosopher Martin Heidegger and the musician Herbert von Karajan threw their arts behind Hitler’s cause. Almost all religious leaders acquiesced; indeed, many threw themselves behind him. Religious martyrs like Dietrich Bonhoeffer were few. If Nazism could arise in Germany, it could arise anywhere. It could arise in the United States of America. Do not ever think that it cannot. Perhaps it is arising today. Are there similarities today? 

"Peace for Our Time?" Neville Chamberlain's Speech about Appeasement

Leaders need supporters, and leaders guide them by speaking to them. When they issue prophecies, we must hear warnings. When they state their seamy values, we must hear plans. When they say things that seem too awful to believe, we need to believe them all the more. Will people listen? Will people learn to listen?  

by William D. Harpine

_________

Research Notes:  

The prophets of Hebrew Scripture were not soothsayers so much as they were moral guides. They warned kings and citizens of impending danger, urging them to reform. This higher road of prophecy is the topic of James Darsey’s prize-winning book, The Prophetic Tradition and Radical Rhetoric in America.  

When people ignore clear warnings like Hitler’s, this may be due to a psychological or persuasion concept called the incredulity effect. When the speaker says something more extreme than the audience expects, people may mentally process it by thinking, maybe, “a great Christian leader like Hitler would never mean that.” They might even think, “he was being sarcastic,” “he is exaggerating,” “he is being metaphorical,” or whatever. Listeners can deny it at the moment they hear it: “a great Christian leader like Hitler would never say that.” Our sense of reality runs from us easily. 

Copyright © 2026 by William D. Harpine

Image of Reichstag:

No. 5 Army Film and Photo Section, Army Film and Photographic Unit

Charles Henry Hewitt, Imperial War Museum, public domain

Image of Holocaust Memorial, Albania:

Bdx, Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication., via Wikimedia Commons

Image of Hamburg, Crown Copyright, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Trump's Second January 6 Speech Accidentally Spiked MAGA Conspiracy Theories

The US Capitol on January 6th

“I know how you feel,” said President Donald J. Trump to the defeated crowd of rioters.

Today is the anniversary of the most shameful day in American history: January 6, 2021, when a horde of screaming, violent lunatics attacked the United States Capitol to stop the election count and certification of the votes that resulted in Joe Biden becoming the next president. Hours later, as the riot neared its unsuccessful end,
Trump emerged from hiding and briefly urged the ignorant insurgents to give up and go home. History has largely ignored that speech. Yet, we should not ignore it, for Trump’s own words devastated the ludicrous conspiracy theories, including his own conspiracy theories, which would soon follow.

Today, I make one simple point: Trump’s short speech totally refuted the leading January 6 conspiracy theories. Indeed, he refuted some of his own subsequent conspiracy theories. In fact, he noted - indeed, proudly admired - that the January 6 crowd insurrected against the United States on his own behalf, and he blessed them. They were not Democrats disguised as MAGA Republicans. They were not Antifa. They were not federal agents leading a “fedsurrection.” 

The bizarre conspiracy theories spread in violation of all reason. It is time to put them down, not by quoting the mainstream media (which conspiracy theorists never trust), nor by checking facts (since, after all, conspiracy theories hold facts in contempt), but by quoting Trump’s exact words. Trump’s own statements destroyed the conspiracy theories.

Yes, January 6 conspiracy theories spread from the outset, angrily endorsed by top Republicans. Several Republican members of Congress, including Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Ron Johnson specifically questioned whether federal officials supported the January 6 riot, presumably to make Trump look bad. My own senator, Ted Cruz, said, “A lot of Americans are concerned that the federal government deliberately encouraged illegal and violent conduct on Jan. 6.”  Representative Clay Higgins claimed that FBI agents were in the crowd, “inside the Capitol dressed as Trump supporters.” Social media pundits regularly castigate Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi for enabling the riot. Indeed, years later, Trump himself blamed the riot on Pelosi. 

These absurd accusations resist endless refutation, but can they survive Trump’s own words? I don’t see how! So, let us remember Trump’s concluding speech that day! Let us look at his exact words. 

First, in his mercifully brief but despicable speech, Trump not only identified with the conspiracy theorists but shared their suffering:

“I know your pain, I know you're hurt. We had an election that was stolen from us. It was a landslide election and everyone knows it, especially the other side.”

Trump continued by lying that “this was a fraudulent election.”

Second, Trump praised the rioters:

“We love you. You're very special. You've seen what happens. You see the way others are treated that are so bad and so evil.”

Trump would never have praised Antifa, nor would he have praised FBI agents who supposedly rioted against him. He praised the crowd because he knew they were his people. No other motive could explain his speech. 

Finally, Trump, identified with the rioters’ false anger but acknowledged that the riot had been defeated and the protestors needed to go home:

“But you have to go home now. We have to have peace. We have to have law and order. We have to respect our great people in law and order. We don't want anybody hurt.”

Finally, once again sympathizing with the rioters, Trump told them:

“I know how you feel, but go home, and go home in peace.”

Donald J. Trump

Now, the people who falsely believe that the 2020 election was stolen will never learn, will never change, and will never accept reality. I can’t help them. Let us, nevertheless, notice that Trump himself knew that the rioters were on his side. Trump admired them. Trump said that he admired them. He said he loved them!

So, the rioters were not a hidden cabal of Nancy Pelosi supporters. Trump would never have loved them. This was not a cabal of federal agents who defied Trump’s authority as their president and demonstrated against his electoral defeat. Trump would not have loved them, either. These were Trump’s people, and Trump acknowledged them, and Trump shared their pain. Period.

To believe that the rioters were anyone other than Trump’s most fanatical supporters defies, not just logic, not just facts, but Trump’s own heartfelt words. Trump and his supporters can, and do, spread other lies to justify January 6, but this particular set of falsehoods collapses under Trump’s own language.

This was lucky for the cause of truth. In his brief, lie-filled speech, Trump could, ironically, not resist speaking from his true, albeit foul, heart. He loved the rioters, empathized with their fears, and sympathized with their goals. As it happens, confirmed liar that he was, Trump still could not resist telling the one central truth.

To overcome conspiracy theories poses a great challenge. Conspiracy theorists ignore fact-checkers and cling to their make-believe world like a seamy security blanket. They sneer at anyone who might question their narrative. They cannot, however, conceivably question the words of Donald Trump himself. By momentarily stating the truth, Trump dissipated an entire set of conspiracy theories. All we need to do is to remember what Trump said on that shameful day. From speech, a hidden truth. “We love you,” Trump said. “I know how you feel.” 

Trump's First Speech of January 6, 2021: A "Firehose of Falsehood"

Liz Cheney and the Firehose of Truth: Using the Republicans' Text Messages Against Them

by William D. Harpine

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For my other posts about January 6 rhetoric, search for "January 6" in the box at right.

Follow-up: After I posted this, I saw that the White House published a note that, indeed, repeated the same conspiracy theories that Trump carelessly discredited in his second January 6 speech. How shameless, and oh, how easily people forget! 

Copyright © 2026 by William D. Harpine

Official 2025 Inaugural Portrait of Donald J. Trump, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Image of January 6 Capitol riot, by TapTheForwardAssist, Creative Commons License, via Wikimedia Commons