President Trump's Tax Reform Speech: Who is the Real Donald Trump?

President Trump spoke yesterday in Missouri to present his tax reform program. The tax program is intended to be pro-business, and Trump delivered his speech at a medium-size business, the Loren Cook Company in Springfield, a manufacturer of ventilation equipment. I visited Springfield many years ago, and enjoyed my stay immensely. The speech was not open to the public, although it was recorded and posted on the Internet.

Donald Trump Giving His Tax Reform Speech

People often comment – I have commented – that there seem to be two Presidents Trump. One President Trump gives dignified speeches from a Teleprompter; the other President Trump gives wild, controversial speeches off-the-cuff. Which is the real President Trump? I think both are. I will give my reasons at the end.

Mr. Trump started the Missouri speech by thanking his hosts at the Loren Cook Company, and he then welcomed the distinguished guests, who included members of his administration and representatives from Congress. Interestingly, he did not name-check Gary Cohn, his economic advisor, who earlier criticized Mr. Trump's comments about the alt-right. That was an odd omission in a tax reform speech. Mr. Trump took time to discuss the heroism and selflessness demonstrated by the people of Texas in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. He made some humorous comments, praised Route 66, which he described as the corridor of American economic activity, and said "This is the place where the "Main Street of America” got its start, and this is where America’s main street will begin its big, beautiful comeback that – you are seeing it right now. This is a comeback of historic proportions. You're seeing it happen right now. (Applause.) Right? You're seeing it." This was all vintage Trump, the conversational Trump using standard Trump phrases. Was he being himself at the beginning? It seems so.

He then began to read a prepared text. He promised that the way to encourage job growth was tax reform. He promised to work on a bipartisan plan that would be "pro-growth, pro-jobs, pro-worker – and pro-American." So far, so good. He complained that economic growth was lacking below 3% until he became president and talked about the number of jobs that would be created.

The speech was long on goals, but short on content, which many news media pointed out. He wanted a tax code that was "simple, fair, and easy to understand," that would help "loyal, hard-working Americans and their families," be competitive on the world market, and so forth. He praised the Ronald Reagan tax reform, as a result of which, he said, "the middle class thrived in median family income increase." He complained that the Democrats were trying to "obstruct tax cuts and tax reform, just like they obstructed so many other things." He wanted to reduce the corporate tax rate, which he said would bring jobs back to the United States.

Of course, when we talk about tax reform, it's all about the details. And Trump provided no details. What would be the percentages of tax cuts for ordinary Americans? Which loopholes would be closed? And so forth. On a larger point: Trump campaigned as a populist who would support the "forgotten American." His tax plan, so far, sounded just like standard Republican plans of the last 40 years. While campaigning, he promised something different. Is he going to deliver? We won't know until we see the details of the plan.

Back to my first question: who is the real Donald Trump? The populist who knows how to work a crowd is a real Donald Trump. That Donald Trump expresses what the man really thinks and feels. But people also care about policies, and, when he reads from a Teleprompter, Mr. Trump generally presents hard-right Republican policies right out of the Reagan playbook. In the long run, which Donald Trump will win?


Was Trump right that the Reagan tax cuts brought unprecedented prosperity? That's actually controversial among economists. I'll think about that and post something about Reagan, the man and the myth, later on.

Update: FactCheck, the Annenberg School of Communication service, found that Trump generally got his numbers right in this speech, but put a lot of spin on them. The lesson is for listeners to get information from more than one source before forming an opinion about the issues. We expect politicians to spin things, don't we?