Donald Trump Speaking at Davos, Part 2: Why Do Politicians Exaggerate?

Donald Trump Speaking at Davos, WH image

During his speech at Davos yesterday, President Donald Trump overstated the United States' economic performance during his presidency's first year. Now, the nation's economic performance during the past year has actually been quite good, so why exaggerate? What's the point? Yet, as I have pointed out several times, politicians overstate their case all the time, and, when they do, they inevitably harm their credibility. So, why do it? The simple answer is that their most loyal voters are happy to believe overstated, unrealistic claims. I pointed out in my earlier post that Mr. Trump's speech, although delivered in Switzerland, was actually aimed at Trump's most conservative, nativist base voters. So, overstating his case will irritate news reporters and independent voters, not to mention Democrats, but does not necessarily harm him with people who are ready to believe (or at least tolerate) whatever he says.

Let's look at a few overstatements. Trump boasted about the swelling stock market, but, as Marketplace points out, the stock market isn't the economy. A booming stock market only helps people who invested in it when the markets were low. The Boston Globe noted several inaccuracies in Mr. Trump's speech. He claimed that the nation had added 2.4 million jobs during the past year, yet net job growth "was actually the lowest" in the past seven years. Mr. Trump claimed that "After years of stagnation, the United States is once again experiencing strong economic growth." Again, the Boston Globe points out that "data released just as Trump finished speaking shows it hasn't yet accelerated meaningfully since his inauguration." He claimed that the recent tax cuts would "raise the average American's household income by more than $4,000." But the Tax Policy Center estimated that the average income is more likely to rise by about $1,600. Now, $1,600 is still a lot of money for most people, so what does Mr. Trump gain by an overstated, unrealistic exaggeration?

If one is appealing to a broad audience, it is to a politician's benefit to make realistic, defensible claims. But if one is appealing to a narrow base of ideologues, devoted supporters, or even fanatics, fact-checking becomes less important than personal loyalty. Loyal audience members are likely to accept Mr. Trump's overstated boasts; even if they don't, his overstatements are unlikely to bother them. So, truth takes a vacation...all too often.