Donald Trump Didn't Make His Case for the Emergency Border Wall Declaration Because He Didn't Document His Facts

White House Rose Garden, WH photo

Policy speakers need to present facts and data to support their claims. President Donald Trump cited facts, or alleged facts, yesterday, when he spoke from the White House Rose Garden about “The National Security and Humanitarian Crisis on our Southern Border.” He gave his case for an emergency declaration to build a wall along the United States’ southern border. Since this declaration is legally questionable, he needed to make a very good case. He took questions. CNN’s Jim Acosta asked Mr. Trump to justify his numbers, and, as I show below, he did not.

Anyone can give numbers. But are the numbers true? Do the numbers come from a reliable source? Do the numbers come from a survey or a study, or did the speaker just invent them?

After rambling a bit, Mr. Trump wisely phrased his point in terms of an emergency: “We fight wars that are 6,000 miles away; wars that we should have never been in, in many cases.  But we don’t control our own border.” To prove this, he said, “We have tremendous amounts of drugs flowing into our country, much of it coming from the southern border.  When you look and when you listen to politicians — in particular, certain Democrats — they say it all comes through the port of entry.  It’s wrong.  It’s wrong.  It’s just a lie.  It’s all a lie.”

Then, to establish that the wall could be effective, Trump said (in respect to his recent speech in El Paso): “In El Paso, they have close to 2,000 murders right on the other side of the wall.  And they had 23 murders.  It’s a lot of murders, but it’s not close to 2,000 murders right on the other side of the wall, in Mexico.” Mr. Trump cited invasions of immigrant caravans that, he said, needed to be broken up and stopped.

Border Wall, Dept. of Homeland Security

President Trump then took questions from the press. He called on a long-time rival, Jim Acosta of CNN. Challenging Trump’s facts, Acosta cited data that, he claimed: “shows undocumented criminals — or undocumented immigrants committing crime at lower levels than native-born Americans.  What do you say —"  Mr. Trump interrupted and said, “You don’t really believe that stat, do you?  Do you really believe that stat?” Acosta responded, “I believe in facts and statistics and data, but —” Mr. Trump then tried to call on another reporter. When Acosta persisted, Mr. Trump responded with an ad hominem attack: “Because your question is a very political question because you have an agenda.  You’re CNN.  You’re fake news.  You have an agenda.  The numbers that you gave are wrong.” Acosta responded: “Thank you, Mr. President.  Just to follow up on that, unifying crime reporting statistics — numbers from your own Border Patrol, numbers from this government — show that the amount of illegal immigrants are down, there is not violence on the border, and that most —” Acosta then clarified that violence still existed but was down.

Then came the zinger. Acosta asked: “I’m asking you to clarify where you get your numbers, because most of the DEA crime reporting statistics that we see show that drugs are coming across at the ports of entry, that illegal immigration is down, and the violence is down.” Acosta continued: “So what do you base your facts on?”

Donald Trump, WH photo

Mr. Trump responded: “I get my numbers from a lot of sources — like Homeland Security, primarily.  And the numbers that I have from Homeland Security are a disaster.  And you know what else is a disaster?  The numbers that come out of Homeland Security, Kirstjen, for the cost that we spend and the money that we lose because of illegal immigration: Billions and billions of dollars a month.  Billions and billions of dollars.  And it’s unnecessary.” Acosta asked him to provide those figures.  Mr. Trump changed the subject.

Let’s look at reality. President Trump’s former Secretary of Homeland Security, John Kelly, correctly pointed out that most illegal drugs are imported through ports of entry, not across the open border areas. The Department of Homeland Security does not publish the numbers that Mr. Trump attributed to them; if they have that data available, Mr. Trump hasn’t released it yet. The so-called El Paso murders, it turns out, happened deep inside Mexico, more than 100 miles from El Paso. The immigrant caravans are heading for ports of entry, not unsecured border areas. If Mr. Trump had information otherwise, he didn't document it.

In fact, Scott Anderson and Benjamin Bittes of Lawfare question whether any of Mr. Trump’s data even exists. To all appearances, it does not. Just to be sure, they filed a Freedom of Information request for the data.

So, Mr. Trump had lots of facts and figures, but he couldn’t justify them. Unable to give his sources, he rambled and changed the subject.

I can see that Mr. Trump’s persuasive methods might work in a high-pressure sales meeting. I can see that his numbers could persuade his primary election voters, since they are already convinced. However, if he wants the larger public to believe his case for his border wall, much less his national emergency declaration, Mr. Trump needs to document his information, give his sources, and defend his points. He was unable to do so yesterday.

As I’ve said before, speakers need research. Poor research has caused trouble for Mr. Trump on other occasions. Rhetoric isn’t an escape from reality; good rhetoric talks about reality.

My own background in communication started when I joined my high school and college debate teams. Debate teams need to give exact figures and quotations and to cite their sources. Unfortunate, politicians often do not. During his Rose Garden speech, Mr. Trump made a poor case for his wall.