Donald Trump Made Incompatible Promises to a Friendly Audience

President Donald Trump spoke yesterday to the American Farm Bureau Federation. He tried to ease farmers' concerns that his policies, like tariffs and the government shutdown, are hurting their businesses. Mr. Trump received almost 2/3 of the rural vote in the 2016 election, but farmers have not been thriving under his policies. The White House has not yet published a full transcript of the speech, and I might write more about it when I can read the entire text. It appears that he met their concerns more by showing affinity with them, by identifying with them, than by discussing realistic policies.

USDA photo

As I’ve mentioned before, people usually vote on strict party lines; rural voters, especially in the South and Midwest, often affiliate strongly with the Republican Party, and Trump began by showing affinity: “I’m proud to be a great friend of the farmer.” Affinity drove his message: he said that he supported farmers, so they should trust him to do right by them.

Mr. Trump’s rhetorical problem is that he has long opposed free trade, while American farmers export much of their harvest. China, it seems, responding to the trade war, has stopped buying soybeans from American farmers. Furthermore, the partial government shutdown has pretty much closed the US Department of Agriculture, whose many programs help farmers. According to the news, in this speech Mr. Trump promised the farmers that “The USDA is doing everything in its power to help farmers deal with the ongoing shutdown.” That seems unclear, since the USDA's programs aren't open.

Donald Trump

Mr. Trump's purpose in partially shutting down the government is to coerce Congress into funding a border wall. In his speech to the farmers, Mr. Trump insisted that the border wall, a major issue from his 2016 campaign, was essential: "When it comes to keeping the American people safe, I will never ever back down." Yet the farmers need immigrant employees to work on their farms. So, answering a farmer's question, Mr. Trump promised, but apparently did not explain, that he would make it easier for guest workers to cross the border to help farmers with their crops. That goal sounds incompatible with his anti-immigration policies.

My first impression is that talk is cheap and policy is hard. Running for office, a politician can say almost anything, promise opposite things, pledge to accomplish goals that cannot possibly happen (like Mexico paying for the wall), and respond to criticism by ignoring the issue and calling people names. Once the politician wins office, however, governance requires the politician to adopt real policies that have real effects. It is easy to make inconsistent promises; it is much harder to adopt inconsistent policies. Do workers get to cross the border, or not? Can farmers sell their crops overseas, or not? Will trade deals help or hurt? 

In this case, Trump’s signature policies – immigration control and trade restrictions – directly harm farmers’ interests. Most farmers continue to support Trump because they affiliate with the Republican Party and its conservative ideas.

If, however, Mr. Trump’s policies continue to harm farmers, and if he is not able to fulfill the vague and contradictory promises he made yesterday, how long will their support continue? Friendly audiences might be friendly and offer speakers their trust, but results also count. Time will tell.


P.S. Literary/rhetorical critic Kenneth Burke wrote brilliantly about the rhetorical method of identification, especially in his landmark book A Grammar of Motives. 

Farm Image link: https://newfarmers.usda.gov/first-steps
Donald Trump, official White House photo